Technological Innovation, the US Third Offset Strategy and the Future Transatlantic Defense

The United States’ Third Offset Strategy (TOS) is a step-change in military innovation offering the likelihood of strategic change in capability, designed to enable the US to maintain global hegemony in an era of great power competition. It represents a key opportunity of technological investment for US defence capacity, which in turn can stimulate the US defence industrial base and the broader technological ecosystem. This policy paper looks into how the TOS may impact Western defence and security decision-making and its strategic implications for the European Union. The goal of this paper is to show that this phenomenon is set to significantly change the way we think about defence, security, technology and alliances. Indeed, whilst the US intends to nurture alliances with European countries who boast innovative potential in order to benefit from key technological advantages, the TOS represents a challenge for the EU. The initiative could widen the technological gap between the US and the EU, culminating in the pressure to purchase systems developed under TOS in an effort to remain relevant. The lack of interoperability may increase. Additionally, because of its focus on defence innovation taking increasingly place outside the defence world, the TOS puts further pressure on European defence companies to develop new strategies in order to keep up with the changes and stay competitive. For these reasons the response of the EU is still uncertain, yet the way Europe will react to TOS will deeply shape US-EU relations, perhaps impacting the transatlantic security and defence policy. The authors stress the importance of a common European response in order for it to be pertinent to the US. The arrival of a new US administration does not help to clarify these strategic uncertainties; statements of the new president-elect regarding security means TOS might change its face, putting the achievements and future courses of the US in question…