What Consequences May the Sino-American Trade War Have On the Denuclearization Process in North Korea?

This paper aims at evaluating the consequences the Sino-American trade war may have on the denuclearization process in North Korea. It states that the situation is well described by a complex interdependence in which the three main stakeholders (North Korea, the United States of America, and China) will try to relatively maximize their interest under the constraint of other agents’ strategic choices. It thus can be assumed that unilateral actions are not likely to solve the issue. But it remains difficult to forecast the outcome of this crisis because stakeholders have not yet expressed their preferences. It appears nonetheless that North Korea will do whatever it can to preserve what it considers as its most valuable strategic asset: its nuclear arsenal or at least its capability of nuclear deterrence. The denuclearization of North Korea would thus be the conjunction of Chinese, North Korean, and U.S. interests…