Geopolitics, Economics and Future Trends: Businesses Facing New Global Upheavals

Four major disruptions are shaping the contemporary economic landscape: geopolitical, climatic, technological and demographic. These are intensifying, interacting and producing a cascade of effects on business activity. Businesses are aware of the staggering challenges that characterise our era, sometimes staying one step ahead of public authorities, not only in terms of identifying risks and potential disruptions, but also in terms of making the operational adjustments needed to address them. In France, there are many such businesses – large, medium-sized and small (SMEs) – that understand they are operating in a profoundly transformed global context, one that is undoubtedly less favourable to European performance. Globalisation over recent decades has often been analysed in terms of the intensification of interdependencies. These have not disappeared. But their significance is shifting. Interdependence can simultaneously be a source of economic efficiency and a source of geopolitical vulnerability, all the more so if certain actors prove determined to weaponise it.

Since the Covid-19 pandemic, we have entered what I have described as the ‘geopolitical age of the hippos’^[1], with a hardening of international and inter-social relations, a general acceleration across all fields with major events following one another in rapid succession, and a strategic multipolarity in which actions are guided by specific interests, without any lasting ties and with a focus on diversifying one’s relationships with others as much as possible. Hippos are ferocious, swift and polygamous, mirroring this new global geopolitical landscape. A convergence of conflicts, shorter reaction times accompanied by a parallel rise in impatience, and transactionalism as the modern epitome of international and inter-social relations.

For a state, but above all for a business, this means three things: defending its positions and capitalising on its strengths; maintaining a clear-sighted outlook and autonomy in decision-making amidst turbulent times; and maximising the benefits of every action or relationship. The rise in risks is heightening tensions. For businesses, this development requires moving beyond a primarily defensive approach to risk. The ability to detect changes, explore several possible futures and prepare responses before disruptions materialise is becoming a key factor in competitiveness. Strategic foresight is no longer a peripheral exercise. It is increasingly central to the robustness of a company’s organisation and its ability to survive in today’s world. Hence the call^[2] the emergence of new roles in the geopolitical sphere, so that companies can build up in-house teams of people capable of taking a 360-degree view of the world and making connections between issues that might at first appear unrelated.

Many young people in France are turning to courses in geopolitics. It is becoming essential to incorporate foresight and economics into these programmes in order to cultivate a more seasoned perspective and prepare students for roles in the private sector, ensuring a firm grounding in reality. Geopolitics is, in fact, moving beyond the fringes of corporate strategy; foresight is proving increasingly necessary; and economics is a major determinant of international relations and social dynamics. It would be a mistake to seek to distinguish between these three fields. By combining geopolitics, foresight and economics, risk analysis goes far beyond mere management. It gains in strategic intelligence, for – let us reiterate – the challenge for a business will be to understand the intensification, combination and spread of risks. Not merely their proven or probable existence.

For businesses, risk management will, of course, remain essential. Identifying vulnerabilities, assessing their likelihood, measuring their consequences and organising responses form the foundations of any resilience strategy. However, this approach relies primarily and generally on identified risks. Yet one of the defining features of the contemporary era lies precisely in the growing significance of disruptions that are difficult to quantify in terms of probability, and in the interactions between different categories of risk. A climatic or geopolitical event can disrupt the smooth flow of logistics, cause a supply chain breakdown, affect industrial production, trigger inflation and subsequently generate economic or social tensions. Risk management must therefore be complemented by an understanding of risks: observing the global environment whilst striving to understand why not everyone thinks and acts as we do; identifying critical interdependencies; monitoring weak signals whilst ensuring attention is also focused on silent structural transformations; drawing on interdisciplinary approaches; and keeping an eye on dynamics that lie outside the traditional scope of the business. In short, we must step out of our comfort zone, accept varying water temperatures and be aware of the ceaseless undulation of the waves.

A company’s life is not a long, calm river, just as its performance is never a guaranteed given. It is also for this reason that we will look for the right character before considering talent. In a more volatile and less stable world, where businesses are constantly evolving, mindset and behaviour matter. They can even make all the difference, not only during recruitment but, above all, when it comes to changes in positions and roles within the company. This is where we need to emphasise what we mean by strategic foresight. It is not about predicting the future! On the contrary, it is based on the principle that several futures are possible and seeks to prepare the company for different environments, which can sometimes be very contrasting^[3]. To put it another way, the purpose of foresight is therefore not to be right about the future and what will definitely happen. Its function is to minimise the impact of strategic surprises for a company. This is a significant distinction, as the aim here is to ensure that the technical and human resources are in place to withstand a potential shock, to react without becoming paralysed, and to do so in a coordinated manner and with pragmatic planning – not only to ensure the operational continuity of activities (or at least to avoid a catastrophic breakdown), but also to identify opportunities at every decisive moment. Moreover, it may sometimes prove appropriate to be bold and highly enterprising even during the most sensitive phases.

In Europe and in France, it is time to draw the curtain on a world that is now definitively behind us, where, in an illusory and arrogant manner, we were swayed by the siren calls of the ‘end of history’, the erasure of geography and the irrelevance of the economy. The wake-up call may be a harsh one for some. We must reflect on our place in the world, the strengths we can build upon and the inescapable vulnerabilities we face. We must consider the trajectory of our democracies, which in recent decades have not experienced any rollback in security or living standards. We must press ahead with ecological transitions without, however, compromising our productive and economic capabilities. Global transformations – whether geopolitical, climatic, technological or demographic – are forcing European societies to make an increasing number of trade-offs. It is even urgent that we learn to prioritise, given that investment capacity is not unlimited – not to mention that it is already diminished.

This less comfortable strategic period does not necessarily signify decline. Rather, we are faced with a collective need to make fresh efforts. Let us shake off the fatalism that suggests a Europe or a France which, like the Titanic, is bound to sink. Let us avoid the slippery slope of thinking that decline is the only possible path. Instead, let us embrace the trail we must traverse, with its obstacles, elevation changes, shifts in pace and unforeseen difficulties. A trail that requires the right equipment to move forward, a mindset combining insight and determination, but also endurance, solidarity and hope. It is therefore not a question of seeking, for a state or a company, an improbable control over the future. Strategic foresight proposes developing the capacity to operate across several possible futures.

The complexity of the present age must not lead to widespread resignation. We may find the situation depressing; above all, it is demanding. We must therefore counter resignation with a kind of joyful zeal: not an optimism that ignores constraints and difficulties, but a collective willingness to view adversity with clarity whilst retaining the capacity to act. In a democracy, just as in a business, the aim must be to do better tomorrow than we did yesterday. Decline is not an option; the status quo is deadly. The future is not something to fear; it is an adventure.

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[1] Sébastien Abis, ‘Feeding the future in the shadow of the hippos’, in Nourrir 2050 : de la fiction à la réalité, Le Déméter 2025 (Paris :  Club demeter, IRIS Éditions) : 22-35.

[2] Florent Parmentier, Cyrille Bret and Laurent Celerier, Chief Geopolitical Officer. Act like an entrepreneur, think like a geopolitician (Versailles: Valeurs ajoutées Editions, 2026).

[3] Please refer to the methodologies and work of the Futuribles International association, which is a leading authority in this field, both in France and across Europe.

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This article has been translated from French into English using artificial intelligence.