China’s formidable rise and uncertainty

President Xi Jinping’s bold efforts to turn China into a global superpower by 2049, when the Communist Party (CPC) celebrates its centenary, are promising but stand on uncertain fundamentals. 

Despite Xi’s formidable determination, China’s rise is not taking place in a power vacuum. It will have to contend with the United States, European Union, India, Japan, Russia and others. Earlier periods when opportunities arose for rising powers to acquire strength were marked by declining empires like the Ottoman, Austro-Hungarian and colonial empires of the 20th century and untenable ideologies like the Nazis and Soviet versions of communism.

China’s military and economic drives have already caused enough apprehension in its neighbourhood for competitors to start banding together to balance its growing power. Each of those neighbours has geographical advantages capable of constraining Xi’s ambitions despite being weaker than China. Xi will need more than wealth and military power to overcome geographical hurdles. He will need to build trust, which is always in short supply in geopolitics…