An outlook on Hunger. A Scenario Analysis on the Drivers of Hunger Through 2030

The following report was written at the request of Action Against Hunger’s technical and advocacy groups. It is intended to support AAH directional strategy. The objective is to provide foresight into the factors that drive hunger and their trajectories through 2030, using structured analysis techniques that help to unravel their complex web of interactions.

The report discusses the heavy trends that predictably shape hunger over the reference period, including: natural disasters, population density, economic inequality, agricultural systems and agricultural productivity. It also identifies the following key drivers with uncertain trajectories that can be more successfully redirected through interventions to affect positive change, including: conflict, women’s empowerment, food policy, energy policy, climate change policy and adaptation, purchasing power, commodity prices and trade. Additionally, the report outlines scenarios, based on the possible courses these drivers of hunger can take, to assist decision makers in strategic planning.

The report begins by providing an introduction to the topic of hunger. It includes Action Against Hunger’s definition of hunger along with other key terms related to the topic. It additionally discusses the major international commitments to combatting hunger and methods of quantifying the state of hunger around the world. The next section begins the report’s analysis, where the drivers of hunger are classified. It continues with the analysis of the critical uncertainties along with discussing the central drivers of which. Lastly, it presents five scenarios for hunger through 2030 developed for this report. The annex contains additional material including a description of all the identified heavy trends, and an appendix provides a quantitative analysis of hunger using indicators assigned to the drivers in relation to five measures of hunger.