Palestine, Two Years On: Some Reflections on the Situation

Two years have passed since a cataclysm struck Gaza and, to a lesser extent, the West Bank. Hour after hour, day after day, week after week, the bombings continue, famine spreads, and the number of dead and wounded—an overwhelming majority of them civilians—keeps rising. Beyond the legitimate emotion provoked by such a degradation of the situation, it is worth attempting to draw a few lessons from these disastrous two years, as they reveal the regressive evolutions shaping the world today.

It is first useful to recall the unanimous reactions of “unconditional support” for Israel expressed by Western states after the massacre of 7 October 2023. It is understandable to express solidarity with the victims, the hostages, and their families; it is much less so to demonstrate unconditional support for a government whose centre of gravity clearly lies within the far-right Jewish supremacist camp. This is why many of those who initially expressed solidarity have since changed their position and no longer hesitate to adopt a critical stance towards the genocidal policy of the Israeli government. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has a history: not everything began on 7 October, and the terrorist acts committed by Hamas are, as Monsignor Vesco, Bishop of Algiers, stated, “without excuse but not without cause.”

The policy pursued by Western powers contrasts sharply with that voiced by the states of the Global South, which, in their diversity, have expressed solidarity with the Palestinian people and attachment to international law. It was South Africa, for example, that took the initiative to bring the matter before the International Court of Justice, which, in January 2024, issued an order recognising the genocidal risk facing the population of Gaza and imposed six provisional measures to address it. Israel has ignored them entirely. For Southern states, the double standard is glaring when comparing the policies of Western powers towards Russia and towards Israel, and it is increasingly unacceptable. This is why the question of Palestine goes far beyond Palestine itself; it has become a marker of shifting political and geopolitical power dynamics. The peoples of the South no longer accept being dependent on Western political decisions. They feel a genuine empathy for their Palestinian counterparts, and for them, the Palestinian cause symbolises the last anti-colonial struggle.

We must then examine the shifting regional balance of power. The hubris of Israel’s leaders has been fed by the multiplication of regional military operations crowned with success. Benjamin Netanyahu—claiming to embody the “eternal people”—boasted in October 2024 of fighting on seven simultaneous fronts: Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iran, Shiite armed groups in Iraq and Syria, as well as Yemen. It is now necessary to add Qatar, struck by an Israeli bombing in September 2025. One cannot help but be struck by the methodical way in which Israel has organised the weakening or neutralisation of its adversaries.

The overall outcome of Israel’s operations reveals the exhaustion of the “axis of resistance,” patiently built over several decades by Iran, as well as the stark military asymmetry in favour of Israel’s undeniable superiority. This new regional strategic equation may nevertheless prove illusory if political solutions are not implemented quickly across the various fronts concerned.

Even if particular recognition should be given to Qatar and Egypt, which are striving under constrained conditions to act as effective mediators, the Arab states not directly targeted by Israeli attacks have shown little real willingness to take initiatives in support of the Palestinians. The signatories of the Abraham Accords, for instance, have not deemed it necessary to denounce the Israeli aggressions, refusing to exert any form of pressure on Israel. Yet their regimes face mounting pressure from their own public opinions, which refuse to see the Palestinian cause abandoned.

One collateral victim of the conflict is international law. It has always been applied selectively, depending on political and geopolitical power relations, and should not be idealised. Nevertheless, it long served as a shield and recourse for dominated or attacked peoples. That is no longer the case. As extreme violence rages across the Palestinian territories, much of the so-called international community’s leadership looks away, becoming, objectively, accomplices to the unspeakable. The sense of impunity enjoyed by Israeli leaders stems from this reality, and unless sanctions are imposed, it is safe to predict that Israel’s policy will continue—its ultimate objective being the annexation of Palestinian territories.

This eventuality, however, is unlikely in the short term, as it could finally provoke reactions from Arab leaders, particularly in the Gulf, that would run counter to Donald Trump’s interests. This divergence is, incidentally, the main one separating Washington and Tel Aviv, since US support for Israel has never faltered for a single day. But Trump and his entourage’s economic interests in the Gulf are such that they cannot risk a confrontation with Arab monarchies. Similarly, the Israeli air strike on Qatar has clearly not been well received in Washington.

The fractures visible within American society are also manifest in international public opinion, where condemnation of Israel’s policy has finally become more audible. The famine endured by part of Gaza’s population and the images of emaciated bodies have proved a stronger trigger than even the bombings and their horrific consequences.

These shifts in public opinion have paved the way for several significant political decisions. The decision by France and nine other countries to recognise the State of Palestine at the United Nations is thus symbolic, but important. Better late than never—and the move must be welcomed after years of hesitation by successive French presidents. Nevertheless, this recognition must be the beginning, not the end, of a process aimed at enforcing UN resolutions and the Palestinians’ right to self-determination. Efforts must ensure that this recognition does not become the recognition of a cemetery, yet airstrikes and ground operations against what remains of Gaza City have not ceased—on the contrary.

It is in this context that the “peace plan” presented by the Trump-Netanyahu tandem emerged on 29 September 2025. The conditions of its presentation left observers speechless, as the US president once again confirmed his tendency to say virtually anything. Once again, the Palestinians were not consulted about a matter that concerns them first and foremost—hardly a promising sign. Even worse, they have been given no place in the proposed transitional authority. This reflects a radical deterioration in the balance of power to their detriment, and in reality demands, particularly from Hamas, total capitulation. Hamas’s decision on 3 October 2025 to agree to the release of all hostages is both an indication of the predicament it finds itself in and a sign of its ability to exploit the contradictions of the plan, since it did not comply with the demand to surrender its weapons. The deliberate ambiguity of the plan’s 20 points bodes ill for the future—except, of course, for the crucial provision of a ceasefire and the long-awaited opening of Gaza to humanitarian aid and medical supplies.

A full assessment of the tragic sequence endured by the Palestinian people since 7 October 2023 will have to be made later, but one point is already clear. Hamas’s misreading of the balance of power has contributed to a catastrophic deterioration of the situation in Gaza and the West Bank. The Israeli leadership, for its part, has seized the opportunity to advance its long-standing project: to prevent, at all costs, the creation of a Palestinian state.

A sombre chapter in history.

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[1] La Croix, 16 octobre 2023.