The Election of Donald Trump and Its Consequences in the Middle East

The least that can be said is that the four years of the Biden presidency confirmed the relative weakening of U.S. influence in the Middle East and the continuation of Washington’s alignment with the Israeli government’s policy. However, the election of the 47th president of the United States is not good news for the peoples of the Middle East, where the situation is already infinitely volatile.

The least that can be said is that the four years of the Biden presidency have confirmed the relative weakening of U.S. influence in the Middle East and the continuation of Washington’s alignment with the Israeli government’s policy. However, the election of the 47th president of the United States is not good news for the peoples of the Middle East, where the situation is already infinitely volatile.

Regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict first. It is remembered that Donald Trump initiated an unconditional support policy for the State of Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu, who was already Prime Minister at the time. Systematically, the measures taken by the White House followed the same logic: the removal of U.S. contributions to the financing of UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees; suspension of financial aid to the Palestinian Authority; the relocation of the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem; and especially the famous “Deal of the Century” concocted by his son-in-law Jared Kushner, who makes no secret of his closeness to the most radical wing of Israeli power. For the record, it involves the annexation by Israel of the Jordan Valley settlements, the administrative relocation of 300,000 Palestinians from Israel, and the confirmation of Israeli sovereignty over the Old City of Jerusalem. In return, it provides the possibility, within 4 years from January 2020, for the Palestinians to have a demilitarized state with no territorial continuity, without control of its borders, airspace, or maritime space, on an area less than half the size of the West Bank and Gaza. This deal has never been applied. This deal had the peculiar characteristic that the main concerned party, in this case, the Palestinians, had not really been consulted. The disappointment for Palestinian Authority leaders was further amplified with the signing of the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates, soon joined by Morocco and Sudan. All of these decisions clearly aimed to make any political solution, and thus any negotiated settlement that would do justice to the Palestinians under international law, impossible. For the Trump administration at the time, it was about relegating the Palestinian question to the annals of history, a position shared by many regimes.

Since then, Donald Trump’s statements have gone exactly in the same direction. Not hesitating to proclaim himself the “protector” of the State of Israel during the presidential campaign, he has repeatedly criticized Joe Biden and Kamala Harris for being inconsistent in their support of Tel Aviv and sharply criticized their calls for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon. Donald Trump’s stance thus appears as unwavering support for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

While Joe Biden’s policy has, at no point, hindered Benjamin Netanyahu’s genocidal advances, one can consider that the latter will have even more freedom under Donald Trump. The recurring attacks by the Israeli government on the UN, the votes in the Israeli parliament on October 28, 2024, aimed at banning the operation of UNRWA in the occupied Palestinian territories will undoubtedly receive full support from the future U.S. administration, while Joe Biden’s administration had expressed some mild irritations on these points. Most of all, there is concern that the support for the settlement process, or even the possible annexation of the West Bank and the prospect of a complete recolonization of Gaza, will be favored by Washington.

Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory. Billboards also appeared in Tel Aviv right after Trump’s victory, with the slogan “Congratulations! Trump, Make Israel Great!”

The second sensitive issue in the region is the Islamic Republic of Iran. We know Donald Trump’s deep disdain for Iran, as he considers it the centerpiece of the “Axis of Evil” that must be brought down. On this issue, several options are possible, but it should be recalled that it was Donald Trump, during his first term, who unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the international agreement signed in 2015 to control and regulate Iran’s nuclear activities – in 2018, nullifying the only regionally negotiated agreement in a positive international framework for a long time. This decision was all the more negative since all the reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection missions at the time indicated that Iran was scrupulously adhering to its commitments. This measure was accompanied by a reinforcement of sanctions against Tehran with the aim of exerting “maximum pressure” on it. Trump’s logic was to contribute to the deterioration of the Iranian people’s living conditions so that they would revolt against their leaders. This binary logic reflects a perfect misunderstanding of the history and functioning of Iranian society, particularly the deep patriotism that permeates all its strata.

Today, it seems that the prevailing logic in the future Trump administration will be the same, while the regional situation is much more dire. At this stage, Donald Trump probably does not want direct confrontation with the Islamic Republic, but the main question is whether he will allow Benjamin Netanyahu to organize significant bombings against Iranian nuclear sites, which Joe Biden had managed to avoid in the final months of his presidency. Thus, during the just-completed election campaign, following Iranian bombings against the Jewish State, Donald Trump advised Israel to “strike the nuclear first and worry about the rest later.” In light of the ongoing Israeli regional policy, this now represents the main risk. While Iranian leaders have shown no signs after the announcement of Trump’s victory, they are probably very worried.

On the contrary, most of the Gulf Arab capitals have expressed satisfaction with Donald Trump’s election, perceiving that he could serve as a point of support to weaken Iran. However, let’s not be mistaken, maintaining close relations with the U.S. will not stop the multi-alignment policy that has now become a hallmark of the foreign policy of most countries in the region. The participation of the United Arab Emirates and Egypt in BRICS+ is a significant indicator of this.

Thus, as international political regulation bodies demonstrate their powerlessness – with the UN at the forefront – Donald Trump’s return to power, given his unilateralist inclinations, will undoubtedly be an additional factor of uncertainty and destabilization that bodes ill for the region.