Africa: demographic dynamics, economic integration and geopolitical assertion

The study of the African continent cannot be reduced to that of the 55 states that make it up. In his book, Patrick Ferras examines Africa at different levels and analyses the development of the organisations that shape it, in order to gain a better understanding of the continent’s dynamics. Africa is experiencing strong population growth and possesses significant natural resources, which represent genuine levers for development. Through the African Union and initiatives such as Agenda 2063, African states are seeking to address security challenges, while strengthening their integration and their economic, political and diplomatic weight on the international stage.

What are the continent’s main geographical and demographic challenges? What role does the African Union play on the international stage and how does Agenda 2063 illustrate the determination of African states to strengthen their political and diplomatic weight? How can regional economic integration be strengthened? Finally, how does the African Union respond to security challenges in Africa? An assessment with Patrick Ferras, lecturer at IRIS Sup’ and President of the Stratégies africaines association, on the occasion of the publication of his book Africa = African Union + 55 States (2026).

How do the geography and demography of the African continent present both opportunities and vulnerabilities for its development?

The continent’s geography and demography offer considerable potential, but efforts to harness it have yet to be fully realised.

The vastness and diversity of the continent’s resources (cobalt, rare earths, hydroelectric power…) represent genuine opportunities and give Africa significant strategic value. Nevertheless, limited transport and energy infrastructure remains a constraint affecting a great many states, particularly landlocked states. Regional integration could provide a solution to these numerous obstacles, but it remains underdeveloped.

While demography is regarded as an asset by some economists (in terms of labour or youth, for example) and could generate a dividend, it remains dependent on underdeveloped education systems and inadequate healthcare structures. A population of 2.5 billion by 2050 represents considerable potential, but this will have to be accompanied by massive investment in employment.

The continent’s development will depend on narrowing the gap between its geographical and demographic potential and the extent to which that potential is effectively harnessed.

What position does the African Union occupy on the international stage and what internal challenges does it face? How do the objectives of Agenda 2063 reflect the determination of African states to strengthen their political and diplomatic weight?

The African Union’s rise as a recognised diplomatic actor has become increasingly apparent in recent years. It has become indispensable in representing the continent and has held a seat in the G20 since 2023. It holds a succession of summits with numerous partners (European Union, China, United States, Japan, France…). Its two “armed wings”, the Commission and the Peace and Security Council, represent the continent’s voice on global and security issues. Nevertheless, significant challenges remain. External partners provide 60% of its budget. Like any union, it is affected by divergent national interests, but also by regional rivalries (regional economic communities (RECs)[1] which weaken it. The management of major crises involving 21 African states remains the African organisation’s principal weakness. Its institutional weight remains relatively modest in comparison with the major powers and international financial institutions.

Agenda 2063 reflects the determination of African actors to shape the future of their continent. This ambition faces several difficulties:

• building an economic and monetary union across Africa;
• Africa remains one of the world’s principal crisis hotspots. More than 78% of United Nations peacekeeping troops are deployed in Africa;
• good governance has been slow to take root on the continent.

In summary, Agenda 2063 clearly reflects an ambition to carry greater weight. It calls for an “influential, united and strong” Africa and expresses the determination to become an actor in international relations.

What are the main drivers of economic growth in Africa? To what extent do the regional economic communities (RECs) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) contribute to strengthening economic integration on the African continent?

The main drivers of economic growth in Africa are natural resources, demography, foreign direct investment (FDI) and the potential of agriculture. These are supplemented by the potential of services and domestic consumption.

Economic integration has developed through the growing importance of eight major regional economic communities. Although they have enabled genuine progress, the considerable variation in integration levels across the RECs does not facilitate the continent’s integration. Furthermore, the possibility for a state to belong to several RECs (which are fragmented and unequal) complicates integration. The African Continental Free Trade Area was established in 2019. It brings together 54 states[2].  Eritrea is the only country that has not joined this major economic initiative. Its objectives are to increase intra-African trade and make the continent more attractive to investors. However, the implementation of the AfCFTA remains slow and was significantly delayed by the Covid-19 pandemic and the successive international crises. The lack of transport infrastructure also contributes to the difficulties surrounding its implementation. It will take many years for the AfCFTA to produce demonstrably positive results. One question remains: what will become of the RECs once the AfCFTA is fully operational? Would reducing the proliferation of economic organisations not be beneficial?

What are the main security challenges facing African states? What role does the African Union play in resolving crises? What measures could be introduced to strengthen the continent’s stability?

Twenty-one African states are facing a major crisis or conflict (coups d’état, civil wars, terrorism or violent extremism). Organised crime and tensions related to resources and the climate are also major security challenges.

In February 2004, the African Union adopted a common defence and security policy. Two fundamental principles should be highlighted: the policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of a state, although the AU reserves the right to intervene in cases of war crimes, genocide or crimes against humanity.

One of the AU’s major programmes is the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA). It is principally structured around the Peace and Security Council (PSC), supported by the African Union Commission. Only the PSC can authorise peace support missions, impose sanctions, launch initiatives and take action in response to potential or actual conflicts. It is composed of 15 members, serving terms of two or three years. Four instruments play an important role within APSA: the African Standby Force (intervention), the Panel of the Wise (mediation), the Continental Early Warning System (information) and the Peace Fund (financing).

APSA continues to be hampered by a lack of financial resources and competition over decision-making between the continental level and the RECs.

Agenda 2063 remains a valuable roadmap. A considerable gap persists between its stated ambitions and the reality on the ground. Continental economic integration, like political unity, can only be achieved through the implementation of the fundamental principle of the African Renaissance: “Silencing the Guns by 2030”.

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[1] There are eight of them: the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD) and the East African Community (EAC).

[2] Representing a potential market of approximately 1.5 billion consumers.