Bangladesh: Country Scenarios. A five year outlook (2016-2020)

Bangladesh (officially the People’s Republic of Bangladesh) benefits from an international image of a model country in tackling DRR and poverty challenges. It is obvious that achievements in these two fields have been consequent. However, recent changes in the national context send worrying signals. Limited governmental capabilities beyond ambitious policies, a growing unopposed power in the hands of the Awami League, and a potential for deterioration at both local and national levels (considering altogether the acceleration of climate change, the impasse in regional resources management issues, the political transition, the sustained corruption climate, and a growing religious intolerance and diffuse Islamic threat) place the country under great uncertainties. Whether the ruling party will manage in the coming five years to bring back stability to Bangladesh by gaining more powers, and by using this space of manoeuver to implement a planned set of socio-economic reforms to further alleviate poverty and disasters vulnerability, or on the contrary will keep key challenges for the population unaddressed, is hard to say at this stage. There is definitely a need to get ready for both options.