The Netflix–Paramount War, or How Trump Wants to Silence CNN

On Friday 5 December, Netflix announced its acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery for 82.7 billion dollars. On Monday 8 December, Paramount Skydance responded with a hostile bid of 108.4 billion dollars, entirely in cash. At first glance, this looks like a classic clash between Hollywood giants competing for control of the Harry Potter, DC Comics and HBO franchises. In reality, this war conceals a far more political issue: who will control CNN, Donald Trump’s bête noire?

Behind the soothing press releases about “shareholder value” and “content synergies”, a chess match is unfolding in which Trump is already pulling the strings. And the President stands to gain, whatever the final outcome.

The Netflix offer: CNN is not part of the deal

Under Netflix’s proposal, CNN is not included in the acquisition. The news channel, along with other linear television networks (TNT, Discovery Channel), would be spun off into an independent entity known as “Discovery Global” prior to the completion of the takeover. CNN would therefore become a publicly listed company, separated from Warner Bros and Netflix.

But this sidelining of CNN in no way shields Netflix from Donald Trump. The President has already signalled that a Netflix–Warner merger “could be a problem”, given Netflix’s already dominant position in the streaming market. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren immediately denounced the deal as an “anti-monopoly nightmare”. By abandoning CNN, Netflix believed it could avoid trouble. It may soon discover that Trump has other plans.

The Paramount offer: CNN served up on a platter to the White House

Paramount Skydance’s offer makes no concessions: 108.4 billion dollars to acquire the entirety of Warner Bros Discovery, CNN included. And that is precisely where things become explosive.

Who is financing this colossal bid? Larry Ellison, the world’s second-richest individual with a fortune of 270 billion dollars and a personal friend of Trump. His son David Ellison, head of Skydance, who obtained FCC approval in July to acquire Paramount after promising “a change in CBS’s editorial line”. RedBird Capital. And, above all, according to the Wall Street Journal, Affinity Partners — the investment firm of Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law — backed by several Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds: Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Abu Dhabi.

In other words: Saudi money, Trump’s allies, and an explicit promise of “radical changes within CNN”. David and Larry Ellison reportedly conducted, according to the WSJ, “a multi-week campaign to persuade Donald Trump” to support their bid. Their key argument? A pledge to “overhaul the programming” of the channel loathed by the president.

Questioned on Monday, Trump played innocent: “None of them are close friends of mine. I want to do what’s right.” He claimed not to have discussed the Warner deal with Kushner. No one in Washington is fooled.

Trump’s real game: he wins either way

This is the perverse brilliance of the situation. If Paramount wins, the 47th President of the United States gets exactly what he wants: CNN under the control of his financial and political allies, with a “reworked” editorial line — in other words, muzzled.

But if Netflix prevails, Trump loses nothing. On the contrary, he can use regulatory pressure as leverage against the company. “You have a dominant position. That could be an antitrust problem. Unless… you eventually acquire CNN from Discovery Global, this new independent entity. And agree to a few editorial adjustments.” Cornered, Netflix might well end up giving in — either by buying CNN after all, or by facilitating its acquisition by a third party friendly to the administration.

Elizabeth Warren may denounce “influence peddling, political favouritism and national security risks”, but she is preaching in the wilderness. Republicans control Congress. The FCC is compliant. The Department of Justice will apply antitrust policy in line with presidential preferences. And Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, already under Trump’s influence since the Abraham Accords and the rapprochement with Riyadh, are compliant partners.

A political hostage-taking

Let us stop fooling ourselves. This battle over Warner Bros has nothing to do with a conventional industrial struggle. It is a political hostage-taking orchestrated from the White House, with Saudi money and Trumpist networks as its enforcement arm. CNN — a symbol of independent journalism that Donald Trump has dreamed of destroying since 2015 — is the real prize in this game of chess.

Whether Paramount or Netflix wins, Trump has understood that control of the media now runs through control of streaming platforms and studios. CNN today, HBO tomorrow, Warner Bros next — and why not Netflix itself if the company proves insufficiently cooperative?

We shall see who ultimately wins the bid. But Trump has already won.

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Romuald Sciora is Director of IRIS’s Political and Geostrategic Observatory of the United States, where he is an Associate Research Fellow. A Franco-American essayist and political scientist, he is the author of numerous books, articles and documentaries, and regularly appears in international media to comment on current affairs. He lives in New York.