L’Afrique en 2025 : quelles perspectives de croissance économique ?

January is traditionally the month when economic growth forecasts are published by banks and major development institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and the French Development Agency (AFD). This year, estimates place the African continent at 4.2%, ranking second behind Asia at 5.1%. This encouraging momentum is driven in particular by a slowdown in inflation and an improvement in international financial conditions.

While global economic growth projections remain moderate, which regions of Africa will experience the highest growth? What are the key drivers of this growth in 2025? What major risks will African economies face in 2025?

We explore these questions with Émilie Laffiteau, macroeconomist and associate researcher at IRIS.

What are the Economic Growth Projections for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2025?

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to see an increase in real GDP growth in 2025, with forecasts converging around 4.2% (IMF, World Bank, AFD, and Moody’s). These projections are higher than the growth observed in recent years (3.6% in 2023 and 3.8% in 2024) and highlight a strong performance for the African continent compared to the projected global growth rate of 3.3%.

The region’s economic outlook remains largely influenced by its two largest economies, South Africa and Nigeria. In 2025, while both countries are expected to see an increase in their growth rates, their projections remain below the regional average (1.5% for South Africa and 3.2% for Nigeria). South Africa continues to grapple with the effects of its energy crisis, while Nigeria—whose economy remains insufficiently diversified—is likely to suffer from an anticipated decline in oil prices.

Diverging growth trends are also expected across the continent. Growth rates are projected to reach 6% to 7% in parts of East and West Africa, while growth is expected to decline in the Gulf of Guinea and Southern Africa. These disparities are largely due to structural differences in economies, with a clear distinction between resource-rich countries and more diversified economies. The former are more vulnerable to commodity price volatility, whereas the latter tend to experience more stable and robust growth. For instance, Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, and Ethiopia have reported or are projected to maintain growth rates above 6% from 2023 to 2025. However, for resource-rich nations, the rising global demand for critical minerals presents a real opportunity to stimulate growth.

Despite these encouraging figures, growth in 2025 remains below pre-Covid levels. When measured per capita, real GDP growth falls to 1.7%, a level insufficient to meet sustainable development goals or to close the income gap with the rest of the world.

What Are the Main Drivers of African Growth in 2025?

The positive economic momentum in Africa is expected to be driven by declining inflation and improved global financial conditions, encouraging the return of foreign investment to the continent, particularly in infrastructure and energy. In a context of relatively stable prices, lower interest rates should stimulate private consumption and investment in many countries, although some still suffer from high inflation due to recent currency depreciations (notably in Angola, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe). At the same time, the easing of global financial conditions should help reduce borrowing costs, although access to capital remains unequal.

These trends are linked to global growth stabilising at around 3.3% since 2023, despite economic slowdowns in some key partners, particularly China. A more optimistic scenario could emerge if Chinese growth accelerates, supported by stronger demand. Furthermore, while macroeconomic imbalances persist, half of the countries on the continent are expected to see improvements in their public finances or external positions. However, if forecasts of declining global oil prices materialise, they will lead to lower revenues for oil-dependent economies.

According to many experts, the gradual implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could create new economic growth opportunities through enhanced regional integration and increased intra-African trade. Others view it as just another among many integration agreements on the continent, potentially serving as a “Trojan horse” for multinational corporations and foreign businesses. At present, its impact remains difficult to quantify, particularly in terms of its contribution to regional growth.

On a more structural level, the continent also benefits from rapid urbanisation and a growing young population, ensuring relatively strong domestic demand.

What Are the Major Risks Facing African Economies in 2025?

In 2025, African economies will face several major risks stemming from both external factors and internal vulnerabilities. These risks could slow growth and exacerbate economic imbalances if appropriate responses are not implemented.

Global growth could be weaker than expected due to protectionist trade policies. In this regard, recent announcements by the U.S. administration regarding tariff increases raise concerns about a significant decline in international trade. African countries could also be notably affected by a reduction in U.S. development aid, and potentially that of other donors. Another source of uncertainty lies in China’s economic performance, as its statistics are often questioned. A more pronounced slowdown in the Chinese economy cannot be ruled out, with negative consequences for developing economies.

Public debt is another significant risk. In recent decades, African states have increasingly turned to China and private creditors for shorter-term loans, at the expense of long-term concessional financing. Combined with unfavourable financial conditions in recent years (rising global interest rates, depreciation of many African currencies), this trend has significantly increased the cost of Africa’s external debt. As of June 2024, 21 states were either over-indebted or at high risk of debt distress, according to the IMF. In 2025, substantial public debt repayments are due, posing a risk to Africa’s growth prospects.

Rising geopolitical tensions globally, as well as escalating conflicts in parts of the Sahel, East Africa, and the Lake Chad Basin, could further disrupt supply chains and hinder investment flows into the continent. Finally, sub-Saharan Africa remains highly vulnerable to extreme weather events linked to climate change. These increasingly frequent and severe events could significantly impact agricultural production, which remains the primary source of income and employment across the continent.