Geopolitics is an underestimated concern of the electorate ahead of 2027

As wars and conflicts see their definition, scope and forms expand, thinking that the electorate is uninterested in these geopolitical questions would be a monumental mistake.

As wars and conflicts see their definition, scope and forms expand, thinking that the electorate is uninterested in these geopolitical questions would be a monumental mistake.

Geopolitical upheavals concern French women and men more deeply than one might think. A large part of the population, including young people, is passionate about these subjects, as shown by the success of specialised podcasts, streams and books, the enthusiasm for specialised subjects at secondary school and the interest in higher education courses offering such curricula. Conferences on the state of the world, in Paris and in the regions, also attract large audiences. These are strong indicators of an enthusiasm that has only grown in recent months, and which it is essential to take into account in the campaign for the 2027 presidential and legislative elections, which is due to begin soon.

Wars and conflicts are seeing their definition, scope and forms expand: not only do most of them no longer have an end, but they go far beyond the mere use of heavy weapons. Information disorders, attempts to destabilise societies and economies, the calling into question of freedoms and human rights and of territorial sovereignty are, legitimately, fuelling collective anxiety. Crises, or those experienced as such (energy, trade, environmental, financial, migration-related, and of course democratic) – and we know how much collective perception is a serious subject, itself underestimated –, are indeed understood as global challenges by the general public.

Thinking that the electorate is uninterested in geopolitical issues would therefore be a monumental mistake. Responding to the concerns of the population consequently means zooming out from the world map: France does not live in isolation. Grasping the complexity of international transformations and power relations is essential if we want to have a hold on the world, exert influence, anticipate and build the future. A nationally centred agenda makes no sense. Voters are tired of the ego clashes of political figures and of programmatic broken records. Talking constantly about “security”, for example, is futile if one leaves aside the threats weighing on the territorial integrity or the economic, energy and technological sovereignty of our country and of European institutions, companies and populations.

Promoting a diplomacy of democratic values

Yes, the world is violent. But concern and astonishment are not synonymous with resignation. “Big-stick diplomacy” is not inevitable: the grandiloquent model of threat, intimidation, extortion (not to mention an unprecedented level of corruption and nepotism) and imperialism is beginning to falter. Its loss of credibility will not leave a void for long: by whom, by what will it be filled? Are we going to leave this opportunity to China, which today claims to be taking up the mantle of defending international law and stability? Donald Trump and J.D. Vance do more than irritate European public opinion: they embarrass, and even cause losses for, the far right of the Old Continent (Meloni, Orbán, etc.). We must take advantage of this.

Initiating a global momentum in favour of a diplomacy of the values of freedom and solidarity, guaranteeing respect for the law, strengthening the sovereignty of our country by relying on science, education and culture (all neglected assets), investing in controlled technological tools (AI, European digital currencies, etc.), ensuring that France once again carries weight in the world, strengthening the influence of major international organisations (UN, UNESCO, WHO, etc.), probably founding new alliances, promoting a Europe of defence, democratic principles and mutual assistance. In short, creating a world of freedoms respectful of everyone, not out of moral sense alone but through a convergence of interests that underpin the majority planetary interest. That is what is at stake from today, and even more so tomorrow.

This is why a unifying social project for 2027 cannot do without a geopolitical vision and programme. To do so, it must rely on scientific and technical knowledge, beyond a certain media hubbub fuelled by the permanent “commentariat” of self-appointed experts. The general public (and therefore the electorate, across all generations and social classes) is asking for this, and rightly so.

This article is an opinion piece initially published on the Nouvel Obs website.