2015-16 El Nino Event

This report is designed to give an overview of the impact of the current El Nino episode on the most affected areas in East Africa, Southern Africa, Asia and to a lesser extent West Africa. It highlights most affected countries within ACFIN’s portfolio and provides, where possible, the likely impacts by sector. The high level of uncertainty surrounding weather phenomena and El Nino in particular makes scenarios too imprecise however, the predictions of the World Food Programme outlined in the 2015 El Nino Scenarios are used as a starting point for this report as they reflect the most current forecast (see Annex 1).

This report complements the WFP outlook with an analysis of the vulnerability of the affected countries. Included in the report after the discussion on the global phenomenon, the 2015/2016 El Nino event, the likely impacts for rainfall, agriculture and health and the resilience of affected countries there is a regional breakdown followed by a more detailed look at the projection and impact by country.