Three Trajectories for Defence Spending in the EU and Their Consequences for the European Industry and Capabilities

In Europe, status quo is no longer acceptable or even possible with regard to the evolution of international relations. Recent years have been marked by a wake-up call underlying the underinvestment in defence. Restoring a credible deterrence requires higher military expenditures. This policy brief looks at three scenarios based on trajectories of military expenditures in Europe and the corresponding role of the European Union.

The industrial base constitutes a critical dimension in a defence posture. The policy brief assesses the potential effects of the different spending scenarios on the European Defence Industrial and Technological Base (EDTIB) in the categories of (capability) priorities, production, innovation, competition and geopolitics.

Whatever scenario history is going to follow in the forthcoming years and the level of intensity regarding proposed hypotheses, three dimensions will determine the effectiveness of defence-related policies at the level of the European Union: the achievement of strategic autonomy, the right balance of power inside the European Union, and the articulation between the short and long term.