American Presidential Election: What to Expect from the Debate Between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?

This is the event of the end of the American presidential campaign. On one hand, because the face-off was unthinkable just two months ago, and on the other, because while Donald Trump has faced this exercise multiple times, in 2016 and 2020, this is Kamala Harris’s first time, and even more so, facing him. And it is she who will be scrutinized. No audience will be present, and only the microphone of the speaking candidate will be open, which prohibits interruptions and will, de facto, limit clashes. This is an advantage for Trump.

Some, lamenting her low-risk approach to the media, predict a collapse for Harris. However, she has prepared extensively for this moment, probably more so than Trump, and has several assets up her sleeve. In terms of form, this is her chance to show the public that she is capable of the job and that she can remain calm in the face of hostility (from foreign leaders, notably dictators). In other words, she has to prove she is credible as Commander-in-Chief.

The 2016 configuration, when Trump attempted to physically intimidate Clinton, will not be the one in 2024. Trump and Harris will stay behind their podiums. Hillary Clinton, who has faced Trump the most in debates among Democrats, has briefed Kamala Harris: Donald Trump is “beatable.” She warned her not to let him monopolize the attention, neither in defense nor in attack. Harris must not let him dictate the tone and pace of the exchanges.

Trump, for his part, will do as he does in interviews and rallies: he will unfold his narrative. But in recent months, he has become vague, increasingly incoherent, and confused. Unable to focus on a specific public policy topic, he repeats that he is treated unfairly by the media and talks mostly about himself (“the largest crowds” attend his rallies, he was the “greatest president in history, by far,” etc.). The difference in a televised debate like the one on September 10 is that the audience will not be limited to his supporters.

Prosecutor Harris

On substance, Harris will aim to be precise. She will ask the same of her opponent: what exactly does he plan to do for the middle class, early childhood, healthcare, taxation, and the environment? She is also expected to revisit gun control following the recent shooting at a high school in Georgia. Trump is known for avoiding direct answers to questions and instead repeating the same narrative: the “danger,” the “weakness,” and the “incompetence” of Harris (and her running mate, Tim Walz) in the face of immigrants “invading” the country through an overwhelmed southern border, and the economy “collapsing.” In contrast, he presents himself as the strong man who will restore the nation. “What project does Trump propose?” Harris will ask, portraying him as a selfish man interested only in his own interests and those of his “rich friends,” who tramples on the concept of “freedom.”

The Democratic candidate may revisit her management of COVID-19 and the “Project 2025” that threatens the rule of law. She could also attack him over his ties to Russia and several major failures in foreign policy: the Abraham Accords in the Middle East, the withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, and the failed attempts to denuclearize North Korea, which only served to strengthen Kim Jong-un’s international standing. Both candidates will attempt to cast doubt, in the eyes of the viewers, on each other’s ability to exercise supreme leadership. Harris’s background as a California prosecutor is one of her key strengths, as she will face a convicted criminal.

In return, Trump will likely try to expose her contradictions: why did she change her stance on hydraulic fracturing, for example? But if anyone is guilty of muddying the waters with persistent ambiguity on a critically important issue like abortion rights, it’s Trump. Expect Harris to launch strong attacks, especially since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling in 2022, which made this issue a central part of her fight. Trump will also emphasize that, in his view, she is responsible for Joe Biden’s record on inflation, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and security.

« Happy Trump »

The election is expected to be tight, likely to be decided in a handful of states. Therefore, while the debate will not change the minds of voters who have already made their choice, it could convince some of the undecided to not only vote, but also decide who to vote for. Polls indicate that Harris would benefit from revealing more of herself. Impressions will outweigh substance. It’s all in the details. The stakes are particularly high as early and mail-in voting will begin just days after the debate in several states (including North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).

Advisors to the Republican candidate are urging him to appear as the “happy Trump” rather than the “bully Trump” (the one who harasses), with the risk being that it could portray him as a tired old man. With Biden out of the race, Trump has become the oldest candidate, the man of the past. Harris must seize the momentum she has built since late July, while Trump will seek to end this enthusiasm. Harris must show who she really is. Trump, on the other hand, will benefit from keeping it hidden.

Article published by Le Nouvel Obs.