Democrats, Do Not Despair!

Donald Trump appears to have the wind in his sails. The first weeks of his administration have been marked by a storm of executive orders, staff reductions, and surprising—even shocking—initiatives. Many of Trump’s early actions challenge the norms of the American democratic system, and some appear outright illegal. Yet so far, they have faced little significant resistance. The traditional checks and balances on presidential power—Congress, the judiciary, and the media—are either openly supportive of the president, intimidated, or indifferent. Congressional Republicans seem content to follow their leader’s wishes, even at the expense of their own branch of government. The Democratic Party is struggling to find a strategy or message to counter the new president. While the courts will attempt to block some of the most controversial aspects of Trump’s agenda, administration officials have suggested that Trump may simply ignore judicial rulings, defying the constitutional system. Traditional and social media appear increasingly willing to back down in the face of the “Tweeter-in-Chief’s” threats to press freedom.

Internationally, allies and partners—including Canada, Mexico, and Colombia—have retreated in response to the administration’s aggressive trade policies. While some of Trump’s most outlandish proposals—such as direct U.S. involvement in Gaza or the idea of purchasing Greenland—have met resistance abroad, none of America’s traditional partners have dared to break ties.

For Democrats worried about the future of the American Republic or U.S. global leadership, this moment may feel bleak. Trump is undoubtedly bringing major, and in some cases irreversible, changes. However, there are reasons to believe that this initial momentum may not last and that the bulldozer may slow down.

First, let’s not forget that Donald Trump is not particularly popular. Many of his actions aimed at undermining American democratic institutions reflect his political weakness rather than strength. He failed to win the popular vote in 2016, his party suffered losses in the 2018 midterms, and he lost the presidential vote in 2020. While Trump and the Republican Party performed better in 2024, winning the popular vote and making inroads with key electoral groups, they still failed to secure a majority of over 50% of the electorate. The Republican majority in the Senate is slim, and in the House of Representatives, it is almost nonexistent. Trump’s claims of an “unprecedented powerful mandate” after the 2024 election are not supported by the facts.

During the first weeks of his second term, Trump’s approval ratings have risen to around 50%—higher than his dismal numbers during his first administration—but they hardly constitute a resounding endorsement from the American people. Trump dominates U.S. political discourse because he is provocative, not because he is widely supported. As the consequences of his policies take hold, voters who are not swayed by MAGA rhetoric are likely to become more vocal in their opposition. The 2026 midterm elections will be a key test of Trump’s resilience.

Donald Trump does not appear to have a comprehensive plan for governing. While this administration entered office better organized and more focused than in 2017, its rapid action on multiple fronts does not amount to a coherent vision for America’s future. Cutting government capabilities, sending undocumented immigrants to Guantanamo, pardoning January 6 rioters, issuing executive orders against transgender athletes, and appointing anti-vaccine activists to lead public health institutions may appeal to the Republican base. But these actions do not improve the lives of ordinary Americans.

Once the flurry of executive orders, mass deportations, and federal government dismantling has run its course, what does Trump actually have to offer? There is little in his agenda that promises real, positive change for voters. Many of Trump’s policies—from inflationary trade tariffs to cuts in federal support for healthcare and education—will ultimately harm Americans. Voters, including some MAGA supporters, will eventually realize this.

Trump’s presidency presents the Democratic Party with a golden opportunity to redefine itself. At present, Democrats are in disarray, struggling to counter Trump’s political onslaught. But this may actually work in their favour. One reason for Trump’s electoral success is a growing public distrust of institutions, including political parties.

In 2024, Democrats suffered setbacks among key demographic groups, particularly Latino voters. The party must critically assess its policies and leadership. Joe Biden’s centrist pivot in 2020, coupled with frustrations over the COVID-19 pandemic, may have secured the White House for Democrats, but it did not build a sustainable winning coalition.

If Democrats can craft policies that appeal to both their traditional base of ethnic minorities and university-educated liberals, while also winning back working-class voters they have lost, they will be well-positioned to capitalise on Trump’s electoral vulnerabilities. Demonstrating—most likely at the state level for now—that government can provide effective and ethical solutions to societal issues will be key. If Democrats can identify and promote a new generation of dynamic young leaders, even better.

The party has four years. It must use this time wisely. As Newton’s third law states: “For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.”

For those opposed to Donald Trump and his style of governance, the coming months will be difficult. But this unconventional politician is far from unstoppable, and Democrats must not forget that.

Regularly follow the editorials of Jeff Hawkins, former American diplomat and associate researcher at IRIS, in his Notebooks of a State Department Veteran.