Cabinet reshuffle in Russia: what offensives are in preparation?

Following his re-election and the formal resignation of all ministers as prescribed by the constitution, Vladimir Putin has proceeded to appoint a new ministerial team. The most commented decision is the replacement of the Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoigu (dismissal, as some write), by an economist, Andrei Belousov, former Deputy Prime Minister. General Valery Gerasimov remains Chief of the General Staff. Sergei Shoigu has been appointed Secretary of the Security Council of Russia.

Numerous circumstantial comments have been made on the reasons behind this dual move. But let us consider what it may indicate about Russian strategy in light of the situation. On the Ukrainian front, since autumn 2022, Russia has established a solid line of defence which broke the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Behind this line, the russification and reconstruction of the Donbas is intensifying.

Russia’s primary concern now lies elsewhere. And it is twofold: to develop the capacities of its defence industry and its armed forces (which receive around 7% of GDP), and to extend its international influence in order to bring an end to the “world order according to the United States”. These two objectives are, of course, interconnected: arms exports and military cooperation are key levers of this strategy of opposition to American imperialism (as it is referred to by Russia), as observed in countries such as the Sahel, Libya, Central Africa, and others. There is also the concern of Central Asia, with the dual objective of countering the rise of Islamism and tightening political ties. Finally, there is the balance to be maintained with China. Certainly, Putin may enjoy being seen—or at least, the West enjoys seeing him—as an autocrat, but given the scale of his objectives, he does not work alone. Even though his power is, by some, attributed to the longevity and proximity of the current Secretary Nikolai Patrushev to President Putin, the Russian Security Council plays an important role in preparing political decisions: through its capacity to analyse situations, to coordinate positions between ministries and services, and to propose “multi-service” solutions.

It therefore seems unwise to interpret Sergei Shoigu’s appointment as a “dismissal”. It should rather be seen as a reinforcement of the strategic lines put in place by Russia to achieve its political goals: to challenge the “world order based on American rules” and to strengthen the execution of its courses of action. These lines of operation are as follows: the war—now routine—of the “special military operation” entrusted to Chief of Staff Gerasimov; the consolidation of military power entrusted to Minister of Defence Belousov, with objectives of quantity and quality to face other challenges; the weaving of international destabilisation policy entrusted to the Shoigu–Medvedev tandem. Sergei Lavrov continues his work of consolidating alliances.

This reshuffle thus reflects Russia’s degree of confidence in achieving its objectives and its search for coherence in action. It must be taken seriously and without delay. If the West wishes to resist, it must broaden its thinking beyond the provision—weak, in any case—of arms and ammunition to Ukraine, or the defence of the NATO perimeter, which is already immune by its nuclear capabilities, in order to gain a clearer understanding of the global challenges ahead. Understanding the enemy’s strategy would already be a first step towards countering it.