American Foreign Policy After the Election

Every four years, one hears predictions that the next presidential election will mark a decisive turning point in American foreign policy. This time it might actually be true. If Joe Biden wins in November, the forecast is easy: more of the same. A second Biden administration would continue on the same course as the first. There would be changes in personnel but not purpose. The administration would try to shore up what’s left of the liberal international order and respond to growing security challenges from Russia and China, while continuing the neomercantilism that now has bipartisan support in Washington.

If Donald Trump wins, however, and especially if he wins along with Republican control of both houses of Congress, all bets are off. The American president has extraordinary powers in the sphere of foreign policy, and Trump has extraordinary powers among Republicans, so the range of possible outcomes is wide. Trump enjoys making shocking promises of vengeance and havoc, and if he lives up to his extreme rhetoric, there could be dramatic changes in many areas. How much he will disrupt things, however, remains impossible to predict.

On the one hand, Trump is a right-wing populist with long-held, deeply rooted neoisolationist views. He has four years of experience in the White House and should be more confident the second time around. Another Trump administration would therefore likely build on the track record of the first, while trying to erase all vestiges of the Biden interregnum. There would be economic nationalism. There would be a desire to reduce existing foreign military commitments and little taste for acquiring new ones. There would be skepticism about multilateral efforts to address global issues such as public health and climate change. And there would be rivalry with China…