2010 - 2009 - 2008 - 2007 - 2006 - 2005 - 2004

Est-ce la reprise ?
Pierre Pascallon et Pascal Hortefeux - 06/10/2009

La "reprise" – il faut savoir de quoi on parle – se situe dans une perspective cyclique de courte période, celle du cycle court JUGLAR – d’une durée moyenne de 6 à 11 ans – avec ses quatre phases (cf. tableau n°1) 1) "l’expansion" ; 2) le "point de retournement haut" ou la "crise stricto sensu" ; 3) la "contraction", avec la "récession" [on a une diminution du taux de croissance du Produit Intérieur Brut (PIB) qui en valeur absolue continue à augmenter sur l’année], puis la "dépression" [il n’y a plus croissance mais "décroissance" du PIB, contraction du PIB] ; et enfin 4) la "reprise" : elle démarre lorsqu’on a passé le point bas de la dépression, préparant la phase de hausse d’un nouveau cycle. - SUITE

The Right Strikes Back!
Immanuel Wallerstein - 15/07/2009

The presidency of George W. Bush was the moment of the greatest electoral sweep of left-ofcenter political parties in Latin America in the last two centuries. The presidency of Barack Obama risks being the moment of the revenge of the right in Latin America. - SUITE

Obama's Very Limited Options
Immanuel Wallerstein - 01/07/2009

For the past few weeks, the world's attention has been fixed on Iran, where there has been much public unrest about the contested presidential elections. It now seems fairly clear that Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad will be sworn in as the next president of Iran with the full backing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. President Barack Obama has been under considerable pressure, primarily from conservative forces within the United States, to take a "tougher" position on the Iranian election. - SUITE - VERSION FRANCAISE

What Kind of Two-State Solution?
Immanuel Wallerstein - 15/06/2009

Now that President Obama has put his weight so openly and publicly behind the concept of a two-state "solution" for the Israel-Palestine controversy/struggle, such a "solution" may well be achieved in the coming years. The reason is simple. Stated abstractly, such a solution has overwhelming support in world political opinion. - SUITE - VERSION FRANCAISE

Obama versus Cheney, Center versus Right
Immanuel Wallerstein - 01/06/2009

On May 21, 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama gave a major speech outlining his administration's views on national security. Minutes after he completed his talk, former Vice-President Richard Cheney gave a major speech that essentially denounced Obama's positions on national security. Both speeches were widely covered by the U.S. press, which termed this pair of speeches as a fundamental conflict of values. - SUITE - VERSION FRANCAISE

Les eaux de la divergence : l’Euphrate et le Tigre
Fabien Dupuis, diplômé de l’IPRIS, Doctorant spécialisé sur la géopolitique de l’eau - 25/05/2009

A la fin de la Guerre froide, de nombreux analystes ont estimé que la pénurie de ressources en eau allait mener à la guerre. Ismaël Seragaldin écrivait en 2000 : « Les guerres du siècle prochain auront lieu autour de l’eau ». Cette déclaration reprend l’idée avancée par Wally N’Dow qui déclarait en mars 1996 : « Nous croyons que, si d’ici 2010 des améliorations massives ne sont pas faites pour procurer de l’eau et pour l’économiser, nous allons devoir faire face à une crise monumentale… - SUITE

The Sinking Dollar
Immanuel Wallerstein - 15/05/2009

When Premier Wen Jiabao of China said in March of 2009 that he was "a little bit worried" about the state of the U.S. dollar, he echoed the feelings of states, enterprises, and individuals across the world. He called upon the United States "to maintain its good credit, to honor its promises and to guarantee the safety of China's assets." - SUITE - VERSION FRANCAISE

Cuba and the United States: The Slow Thaw
Immanuel Wallerstein - 01/05/2009

After nearly 50 years of unremitting hostility to Cuba's revolutionary government, the United States has taken its first steps towards a thaw in relations. The Cuban government has responded cautiously and skeptically, but has kept the door open to this possibility. - SUITE - VERSION FRANCAISE

What Was the Point of the G-20 Meeting?
Immanuel Wallerstein - 15/04/2009

Almost everyone took the meeting of the G-20 in London on April 2 too seriously. Pundits and critics have been analyzing it as if it had been designed to accomplish some change in policies by the states which participated. The fact is that everyone who went knew in advance that nothing of any significance would change as a result of the meeting, and that the few minor changes that were adopted could easily have been arranged without the meeting. - SUITE - VERSION FRANCAISE

Af-Pak: Obama's War
Immanuel Wallerstein - 01/04/2009

Af-Pak is the new acronym the U.S. government has invented for Afghanistan-Pakistan. Its meaning is that there is a geopolitical concern of the United States in which the strategy that the United States wishes to pursue involves both countries simultaneously and they cannot be considered separately. The United States has emphasized this policy by appointing a single Special Representative to the two countries, Richard Holbrooke. - SUITE - VERSION FRANCAISE

L’évolution de l’OTAN : variation des visages d’une institution dans l’orbite des Etats-Unis
Pierre Pascallon, Professeur Agrégé de Faculté - 20/03/2009

A la veille du sommet du 60ème anniversaire de l’Alliance atlantique, il n’est sans doute pas inutile de regarder les différents visages pris dans le temps, depuis sa naissance, par l’OTAN, outil politico-militaire dont le logiciel est élaboré à Washington et qui ne cesse de participer à la stratégie d’influence des Etats-Unis qui l’utilisent et continueront demain à l’utiliser en fonction de leurs intérêts. - SUITE

Civil War in the United States?
Immanuel Wallerstein - 17/03/2009

We are getting accustomed to all sorts of breakdowns of taboos. The world press is full of discussion about whether it would be a good idea to "nationalize" banks. None other than Alan Greenspan, disciple of the superlibertarian prophet of pure market capitalism, Ayn Rand, has recently said that we have to nationalize banks once every hundred years, and this may be that moment. Conservative Republican Senator Lindsay Graham agreed with him. - SUITE - VERSION FRANCAISE

Guadeloupe: Obscure Key to World Crisis
Immanuel Wallerstein - 02/03/2009

Guadeloupe is a tiny island in the Caribbean, the size of greater London or the state of Iowa in the United States. It has a population of about 400,000 persons. The world press hardly ever mentions it. Since January 20, it has been the site of an ongoing general strike, which has managed to get 10% of its population actually marching in the streets, which must be a world record. - SUITE

The Politics of Economic Disaster
Immanuel Wallerstein - 15/02/2009

Every day, I read another economist, journalist, or government official opining on how best to achieve economic recovery in this country or that. Needless to say, the remedies all contradict each other. But almost all of these pundits seem to me to live in fantasyland. They actually seem to believe their remedies will work in some relatively short period of time. - SUITE

Remaking America: The Ambiguities of Obama
Immanuel Wallerstein - 01/02/2009

Barack Obama was inaugurated president of the United States on January 20, to the cheers of a vast majority of both the American people and the people of the rest of the world. In his inaugural address, he promised to "begin again the work of remaking America." - SUITE - VERSION FRANCAISE

Urgent : refondation des Nations Unies
Federico Mayor Zaragoza, Président de la Fundación Cultura de Paz - 31/01/2009

À la fin de la Première Guerre mondiale, le Président des États Unis Woodrow Wilson, décida, au mois de décembre 1918, que l’horreur de la guerre qui venait de s’achever ne devrait plus se reproduire, et il établit, dans la Convention pour la « paix permanente », la Société des Nations pour « un nouvel ordre fondé sur le règne de la loi basée sur le consentement des gouvernés et soutenue par l’opinion organisée de l’humanité ». - SUITE

La quatrieme frontière ou l’objectif stratégique de la guerre de Gaza
Dr. Marwa Daoudy, IHEID (Genève, Suisse) - 19/01/2009

La guerre israélienne, ou l’« Opération Plomb Durci», officiellement destinée à neutraliser les tirs de roquette du Hamas, aura déjà causé la mort de plus de 1300 Palestiniens et 13 Israéliens (dont 10 soldats) - SUITE

Chronicle of a Suicide Foretold: The Case of Israel
Immanuel Wallerstein - 15/01/2009

The state of Israel proclaimed its independence at midnight on May 15, 1948. The United Nations had voted to establish two states in what had been Palestine under British rule. The city of Jerusalem was supposed to be an international zone under U.N. jurisdiction. The U.N. resolution had wide support, and specifically that of the United States and the Soviet Union. The Arab states all voted against it. - SUITE

Le plan de relance français peut-il être efficace ?
Pierre Pascallon, Professeur Agrégé de Faculté - 07/01/2009

La France vient à son tour –comme quasiment tous les pays significatifs du monde- de lancer : il a été annoncé par Nicolas SARKOZY le 4 décembre à Douai (Nord) un plan de relance de 26 milliards d’euros dont les deux piliers essentiels sont, d’une part, le soutien à la trésorerie des entreprises malmenée par la frilosité des banques, d’autre part, un programme d’investissements publics. - SUITE

Cuba is Back!
Immanuel Wallerstein - 01/01/2009

Amidst a world economic/financial crisis that seems to worsen day by day, continuing political and military meltdown throughout the Middle East, and the global anticipation of Obama's presidency, little world attention has been given to a major geopolitical event in mid-December, 2008. Cuba is back! - SUITE