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Barah Mikaïl


“Damascus has many reasons to be satisfied of Jumblatt’s upheaval”
Barah MIKAÏL par Nayla Chahla (Iloubnan.info, 12 janvier 2010)



Four years after unprecedented rupture and tensions with Syria, Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt sealed a major “upheaval” of his political stance regarding Damascus. By the end of 2009, he withdrew from March 14 coalition and pledged to pay a visit to Syria. To that purpose, he launched a whole process of reconciliations with Syria’s allies and senior figures of the Lebanese opposition. What could be at stake in such a visit? Focus with Mr. Barah Mikail, Research Fellow on Middle East and on Water Issues at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations in Paris (IRIS).

Since 2005, tensions fueled up between Lebanese MP Walid Jumblatt and Syria. By the end of 2009, Jumblatt made an « upheaval » and kicked off a series of reconciliations with the allies of Syria. What are the Syrian preparations, nowadays, for hosting him?

Barah Mikail: Syria has many reasons to feel satisfied of such an upheaval. It considers it evidenced that the tensed verbal statements of the Progressive Socialist Party leader reached their end today and confirmed Damascus within its rights. At the same time, no one should expect the Syrians to be open to a full and comprehensive make-up with Walid Jumblatt. Historically, the father of the current Syrian President, Hafez al-Assad, always said he made little of the case of current PSP leader. He always felt powerful as he knew Walid Jumblatt was fully committed to Syria, though totally convinced that Hafez al-Assad assassinated his own father (Kamal Jumblatt ndlr). Bashar al-Assad has a good chance to be more suspicious than his father regarding Jumblatt. As a matter of fact, Bashar al-Assad considers that even the similar upheaval of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri paves the way to all the Lebanese “anti-Syrian” figures of yesterday to, willingly, pay a visit to Damascus. There is no doubt the Syrians are very satisfied thereto.

What could be the obstacles that would hamper such a visit?

Unless Walid Joumblatt doesn’t undergo an unlimited upheaval, I don’t see any obstacles that could hamper the visit. Syria has the good luck to take advantage of this visit; therefore, it would not miss that chance, since it earned no political gain by showing hostility regarding such a possibility (Jumblatt’s visit). However, since the moment the visit occurs, the Syrian press would be expected to have a field day on it. As a matter of fact, the Syrian press would only report what would the Syrian authorities state.

What are the chances for a true Jumblatt-Damascus reconciliation?

Once again, they will be forced chances. Jumblatt is a man full of paradoxes. He is always prone to change his mind within one minute. Damascus would never imagine working side-by-side with someone reputed for such a behavior. However, it would probably manage, theoretically, to open a new page not with Walid Jumblatt specifically but with the Lebanese Government. In fact, the Syrians consider that dealing with Jumblatt’s case specifically would be considering him more important than he is.

The Special Tribunal for Lebanon will start soon its judicial procedures. Syria is strongly involved thereto and Jumblatt is one of the Tribunal’s mainstays. How would Damascus deal with that dilemma?

I guess Syria doesn’t really see Jumblatt as a key part of the Tribunal’s body. The real conflict between Syria and Jumblatt is wider than the Tribunal’s issue. It isn’t just limited to this unique issue. That is why I think the Syrians are unlike to consider the Tribunal’s issue as a dilemma. As a matter of fact, after Saad Hariri’s visit to Syria, Jumblatt’s visit to Syria would aim to ease the fears that would be triggered by Syrians against that Tribunal.

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