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Pascal Boniface


Not a turning point in history
par Pascal BONIFACE (Gulf News, 19 septembre 2008)



Commentators on international affairs have stated the significance of 08/08/08 (August 8th, 2008, a day that already has a mysterious formulation) as a historical date that could mark the emergence of a new world order.

Indeed, two unrelated, but important events took place on that day and gave credence to the idea of a historical rupture.

The first was the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games in Beijing. It led to China finishing at the top of the medals' tally. China's supremacy in sports is a complement to its economic and technological successes.

The day also saw the beginning of a mini-war between Georgia and Russia, with Moscow emerging as the victor. The conflict brutally reminded the Westerners not to underestimate Russia.

Shall we call it a turning point in history? On this day, two potential rivals of the US asserted their powers in two different fields. Now that China and Russia have achieved glory in sports and war, are we to reckon that they would be in the forefront of decision making in the world and that they would not agree to being consigned to the background?

Did the 08/08/08 represent the end of the unipolar world that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union? Can we say that with the new international order, the days of the US as the sole superpower, which used to dictate terms to the world without taking the opinion of other nations, are over? No, it is a hasty assertion, way too approximate, and it is more an optical illusion than a strategic reality.

Obvious

It is very obvious that the world today cannot be described as unipolar. However, the United States remain the greatest power in the world, not only at the strategic level but also at the technological, economic and cultural levels. In each field, they are still far ahead of Russia and China. But Washington can't pretend anymore that it is the undisputed superpower. America got bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq and its economic situation is getting worse.

Moreover, America's popularity in the world is declining and its influence on international politics is constantly becoming weaker. The United States remains the world's greatest power, but it is not hegemony. When the Americans believed that they were the sole super power, they invaded Iraq without taking the consent of the international community.

It's now obvious that they are paying a price for this illusion. We live in a globalised world, where power is diversified and no one player, powerful or not, can set the rules alone. Moreover, Barack Obama and John McCain, the two candidates for the US presidential election, admit that America should better practice multilateralism.

It would be a mistake to think that 08/08/08 represents a historical turning point. Neither Russia, nor China have been elevated from the status of minor state to the status of a great power. It's more a step forward in the evolution of changing geostrategic balances. China didn't rise in August. China was clearly more visible during the Olympic Games.

However, the games were just one step, among many, in China's path to becoming a strong power. The rise of China started in 1978 and remains unchanged since then. Russia today has nothing to do with the former Soviet Union which was unable to defend its national interests under Boris Yeltsin.

Indeed, since the beginning of 2000 and Vladimir Putin's election as the president of the country, Russia has made a comeback on the world stage due to its progressive economic, domestic and foreign policies.

In fact, multipolarisation (which doesn't mean that the different poles are equally powerful) is an ongoing process and we should not identify it with a definite date, as we could with the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9 which ended the Cold War.

As with any process, this one is made of several episodes, to such an extent that we don't know when it all really started. We are facing a relative diminution of the United States - which remains nevertheless, the number one power in the world - and the emergence of other international players, not only China and Russia but also Brazil, India and many others. But sometimes, in order to simplify things and to catch the public attention, the commentator tends to turn the headlines into history, evolution into revolution, a process assertion into a historical rupture.

In this respect, the 08/08/08 is rather the confirmation of a tendency with ancient roots.

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