It would be useless to discuss settlement until Russia and the West put an end to the logic of a silent cold war. The strategic stalemate of the main players looks impossible to overcome, but I do not think the status quo will be maintained.

The US, which is the main political and military pillar of Tbilisi, is becoming worried by the unpredictability of President Mikhail Saakashvili. It would be useless to discuss settlement until Russia and the West decide to end the big game and put an end to the logic of a silent cold war. This presupposes a radical change in the policy of the Kremlin and a deep review by the West of the positive role which Russia could play in the region.

Russia must at long last see the Caucasus as an integral part of the world and pursue a consistent policy there. Moscow would gain from reviewing its policy with regard to its neighbours, abandoning great power aspirations in favour of a policy of partnership with sovereign states.

Meanwhile, the West should ask itself: How important and justified is the policy of silent "deterrence," which has been the main element of the Western attitude to the region since 1994? Would not it be better to use the resources, which are being spent on the mini-cold war, for launching, together with Russia, a fight against real threats (terrorism, WMD proliferation and the drug threat) in the southern flank of the former Soviet Union?

This requisite change in the paradigm of Russia-West relations in the Caucasus could take the form above all of economically and geopolitically vital projects. The restoration of railway communication between Russia and Georgia and talks on the possible linkup of the Kazakhstan-Novorossiisk and Baku-Ceyhan oil pipelines could help the sides get rid of the impression that the game they are playing cannot be won, an impression that has become deeply rooted in Russia and the West.

Positive progress in these projects could open the door to more ambitious co-operation in the sphere of security, including joint settlement of certain common concerns, such as a change of regime in Turkmenistan.