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La Revue internationale et stratégique N°70

La Revue internationale et stratégique N°70
Summer 2008
LE DOSSIER : Iran, sensitive plate of international relations
sous la direction de Didier Billion

INSIGHTS

Nicolas Sarkozy and the French Foreign Policy: Between Changes and Continuity / Hervé de Charette

The French foreign policy hasn't derogated from the volition of break of Nicolas Sarkozy. The French president has implemented a new style, more direct and vigorous, which has not to be underestimated. Indeed, personal relationships between heads of state are crucial in foreign policy. Concerning the nature of the policy, we will have to wait for several years to be able to analyse his foreign policy, and evaluate the share of break and continuity. Moreover, the heaviness of our strategic interests and commitments doesn't permit a total change, but rather small modifications. However, a first analyse can be done about the 4 principal themes on which the head of state has made many initiatives: Europe, Mediterranean, transatlantic relationship and links between Africa and France.

The Union for the Mediterranean, an Opportunity to Strengthen Cooperation Between the Shores of the Mediterranean / Interview with Alain Le Roy
What Environmental Perspectives for the Post-Grenelle and Bali? / Nicolas Hulot

2007 was marked by a collective consciousness of the environmental crisis. It is regrettable that it happens so late, but it must be noted that it took time for the ecological imperative to emerge as a priority issue. Both the Grenelle of Environment and the Bali Conference have enabled to start a dialogue between the different actors who finally share the same analysis on the necessity of a deep economic, social and cultural evolution in our societies. The changes to operate are massive and the environmental policy will not be very easy to accept. In this context, a debate and a pedagogic explanation, not only on the analysis of the situation, but too on the solutions constitute the keys of the success.

The Reasons of Lebanon Crisis : Does Europe Contribute to Find a Solution? / Georges Corm

Lebanon crisis has numerous internal and external causes, which are intimately related. The 1559 resolution of the UN Security Council, in 2004, and the murder of the prime minister R. Hariri, in February 2005, have had some outcomes. The Syrian military presence in Lebanon setting up in 1990 by the United States, was unseated. In spite of internal crisis reasons, medias and chancery split the political landscape between pro and anti Syrians. The impact is a regional confrontation: Syrians and Iranians versus Israelis and Americans, supported by Europeans. Western people have become stakeholder of the regional internal tensions, and, away from facilitate a crisis exit, contribute to toughen it.

Initiators of War, Initiators of Peace: the Political Use of Cultural Identities / Gregory Kehailia

The theory of “clash of civilizations”, which is based on an essentialist and deterministic vision of history, explains conflicts by their cultural dimension. However, in the Mediterranean as elsewhere, the factors of war are many and combined in complex ways. Limiting the analysis of the outbreak of armed conflicts to cultural or religious data, or giving them excessive importance, is wrong. But the leaders and peoples of warring countries tend to “culturalize” the conflicts. The question of identity can also serve as an argument for policy makers to justify rapprochement and then become an instrument of peace. The approach is no less ideological, and relies also on a fabrication, but concerning the otherness.

Pakistan: Weight Ills / Olivier Guillard

The ills of the Pakistan are not only linked to the state security and the economic situation, but also to the political system in place. The shadow of dictatorship is still present and pressing, which degrades the Pakistan's image on the international arena. The dialogues and cooperation with the neighbours have long been broken. The possible ways out of the crisis are not many: the ideal of justice and the establishment of the rule of law remain essential. The priority would be to initiate a genuine popular support for change, to begin a real evolution in all sectors of the country, and a return to the discussions and cooperation with the others States in the region.


SPECIAL FEATURE: IRAN, SENSITIVE PLATE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

EDITORIAL / Didier Billion

THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS IN IRAN
“The Seizure of Power” by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps: Return to Past or Prospect of Opening? / Bernard Hourcade

After three decades of political stability under the control of the clergy, there is a possibility of profound political change with the coming to power of the generations who were twenty years old at the time of the 1979 Islamic revolution. Paradoxically, the seizure of power by Islamic veterans could help break the current deadlock. The question is who are these new leaders, what is their policy, which group they belong to. Their diversity is really as great as that of Iranian society, ranging from the pro-Western liberalism to the Islamic radicalism. In addition, will they succeed to be elected by the popular class which support M. Ahmadinejad, and to convince them that they offer a satisfactory solution to break the deadlock?

Iran, Between Sanctions, Destructions and Negotiations / Azadeh Kian-Thiébaut

The Iranians rulers, inclusive reformers and conservatives, are unanimous concerning nuclear technology, which the possession seems to be priority for the Islamic regime. In this context, the United States want to contemplate all the options, inclusive military option, but they emphasize on diplomacy on condition that Iran suspends his enrichment and reprocessing uranium process. Their position don't favour an exit to the Iranian crisis. However, the proposition to negotiate without former demands between the United States and the Iran enable to Iranian rulers not to lose face vis-à-vis of the Iranian, Arabic and Muslim public opinions whom they declared they are ready to remain firm in front of the Western pressure. It is also a way to seek for a solution to avoid nuclear proliferation and instability in the Middle East.

Iran's Economy Under Ahmadinejad: Promises to Reality... / Thierry Coville

The current economic situation in Iran is quite favourable, particularly thanks to the constant rise in the price of the oil barrel since 2002. The oil receipts account for almost 70 % of government revenues. Moreover, Iraq has become the second market for Iranian non-oil exports and the first economic partner. However, the acceleration of inflation has had an impact. The Iranian government supports the imports. Therefore sanctions and international threats especially against the foreign policy and nuclear proliferation of the Islamic Republic weigh only marginally on the economy. The little number of difficulties, that is to say inflation and the weakening of the national production, is due to governmental errors.

Iran After the General Election of March 2008: A Trompe-l'Oeil Victory? / Michel Makinsky

In spite of a wide supremacy of conservative forces in Iran, the country is confronted at a large flow of disputation in all parts of the population. This situation was the reflection of a hard economic, political and social situation. Start with the result of the general election, the article recount and analyse the accomplishment and the failure of the whole M. Ahmadinejad policy. The author ends his argumentation by an enhancer of the political perspectives for the next Iranian presidential election in 2009.

The Islamic Republic of Iran in Quest of a New Source of Power / Ahmad Naghibzadeh

Historically, the Iranian power was legitimated by the Shiite clergy. But since the Constitutional Revolution of 1905, the society is divided between the traditionalists and the modernists. If the Shahs' regime reduced the role of clergy, the Islamic Revolution of 1979 marked a return to religion as a source of legitimacy of power. But faced with the slowdown of the revolutionary ideology and with its confrontation with the practice of power, the regime seeks new forms of legitimacy. In this context, external threats represent a unifying element of the population around the state. Thus the policy of international sanctions against Iran is paradoxically helpful for the regime, while the normalization of its relations with the international community would weaken it.


THE NUCLEAR ISSUE
The Iranian Nuclear in Perspective / Yann Richard

The civil nuclear constitutes an alibi for Iran which the real aim is the access to the military nuclear power. It was probably the initial goal, before and after the 1979 revolution. The provocative speech of Iranian rulers on Israel constitute a reason to enrich uranium at military ends. But it appears that's not the only reason for Iran to pursue its nuclear program. Will not be efficient to begin sincere negotiations with Iran and to engage a policy of denuclearization of the region? Moreover the international interferences on the Iranian matters could be detrimental. Indeed, democratic freedoms won't spread in Iran, if the great decisions that concern the country don't take into account the national willing.

After Iran : Towards Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East? / Barthélémy Courmont

Iran's potential acquirement of the atomic bomb could lead to nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Many countries in the region would be tempted to follow the Iranian example, in order to maintain their regional power. This development could produce significant geopolitical consequences in a region where relationships are already tense. In this context, one can envisage different crisis scenarios: support for terrorist acts, attacks on American bases in the region, threats against the state of Israel. Accelerated nuclear proliferation in the Middle East would also jeopardize the efforts undertaken by regional actors during the past four decades to create a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone (NWFZ).


PROSPECTS FOR ENDING THE CRISIS?
Two Appointments to Prepare / Axel Poniatowski

Even though Iran has signed the Non-proliferation Treaty, the country has concealed secretly his uranium enrichment process since the decade 1980. The ambiguity remains on the objectives that follow the Islamic republic. Should we consider this action as a preparation for a hypothetical conflict or simply as a development of equipment with civil nuclear energy? The International Atomic Energy Agency has examined the Iranian case, and the United Nations Security Council has punished Iran with resolutions to limit and control the enrichment uranium process. The issue to the Iranian crisis seems to rest with political agreement. That's the reason why the international community is waiting with a great interest for the next American and Iranian elections : the arrival of new political figures could relaunch the dialogue on nuclear disarming.

Which European Diplomacy vis-à-vis Iran's Nuclear Ambitions? / Pierre Moscovici

The conduct of European diplomacy on the Iranian dossier raises many geopolitical issues. What are the strategic possibilities for the European Union ? Its credibility is at stake and it must now demonstrate that its alternative approach is more efficient than American policy, which seeks to use the Iranian nuclear dispute as an element of struggle against the Iranian regime. However, the multiplicity of decision-making structures of the EU foreign policy make more complex its action and the implementation of its policies, that are articulated between diplomatic efforts and threats of sanctions. Where the United States has chosen containment, the EU chooses the commitment and sees the return to dialogue and stabilization possible.

Iran: The Essential Dialogue / Aymeri de Montesquiou

Iran is located at the heart of the Middle East's conflicts, and of international geostrategic interests. This millenary civilization enjoys from a great influence, most of all since Islamic revolution which has involved Shiite proselytism. Iran have in his possession big energetic resources and controls the Ormuz strait through which transit about 30 percent of petroleum flow. In this context, the nuclear question matches to Iranian willing to assure his national independence and his regional leadership. However, the confrontation of president Ahmadinejad with West, which try to mobilize the Iranian nationalism, has conduced to isolate the country from the rest of the world. The crisis will end by the talks, particularly on nuclear proliferation issue.

Europe Face to Iranian Crisis / Daniel Cirera

There are major stakes around the Iranian nuclear crisis as regional stability, risks of news military clash, the proliferation threat, and energetic issue. In this context, the European ability to elaborate a European politics constitutes a great challenge. Since 2003, The European tried to avoid military clash. Their moving positions keep a coherency, but no European policy has been really elaborate. To succeed in, Europe should take away from the American position. The construction of a European autonomy process is not an ideological choice, but it enrolls in the logic of the union. Whatever the Atlantist convictions of European rulers are in this crisis, this autonomy ability constitutes the necessary condition to play a role.

Go Out Peacefully of Iranian Crisis / François Géré

In February 2006, The International Atomic Energy Agency transmitted the Iranian case to the United Nations Security Council. However, Iranian refused to halt his nuclear program. The international community has tried to elaborate a thinking on a strategy to resolve the crisis, in order to avoid the bomb or the air raid. France has moved closer from the Bush administration position, lauding diplomacy but also the sanctions. The situation remains extremely tense. Indeed, in February 2007, military tensions appeared between air and see American forces and Iranian army in charge of seashore defence. The appeasement pass by dialogue. But it isn't initiated, while the Iranian position has hardened for two years.

Faced With Iran's Nuclear Ambitions, To Uphold International Law / Entretien avec Bruno Tertrais
Against the Bomb and for the Human Rights / Michel Taubmann

The will of Islamic power to access to the nuclear bomb is conspicuous. The main doubt concerns the advancement state of the nuclear project. Currently, the reformer Khatami or the pragmatic Rafsandjani are not more the rivals of Ahmadinejad. They have been replaced by the current mayor of Teheran Mohammad Qalibaf and the former Iranian negotiator on nuclear Ali Larijani, both coming, as Ahmadinejad, from the repressive and safe apparatus of the Islamic regime. Coupled to targeted and necessary sanctions, the international support to secular and democratic Iranian is the more legitimate and rational way to weaken the hardliners Iranian rulers, and to give support to the pragmatics and the reformers currently choked by the theocratic institutions.

Nuclear Iran: I remember 2003 / François Nicoullaud

ISRAEL AND IRAN
Israel and Iran's Nuclear Program: Groundless Obsession or Genuine Concern / David Menashri

The combination of radical ideology, as espoused by Iran's leadership, and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is the root cause of Israeli concerns. Iran's attitude towards Israel seems to be rooted in a deep sense of religious mission, identification with the Palestinian problem, opposition to Israel and to its policies. For Islamic Iran, Judaism is a religion, not a nationality, and therefore Jews do not have the right to a state, certainly not in the Middle East. Moreover Iran supports Islamic groups as Hezbollah and Hamas. In this context Israel should view the Iranian nuclear program as the problem of the world, but the international community is not doing what it is supposed to do to solve the problem.

Two Potent Claims at the Root of Pressure on Iran / Yakov M. Rabkin

Two claims attributed to Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have intensified the pressure that the United States and Israel have put on his country: he is accused of denying the Holocaust and threatening a genocide against Israel's population. Iran is often presented as a new Nazi Germany and President Ahmadinejad as a new Hitler. This article traces the origins of these accusations and explains the role that the confusion between the Jews, on one hand, and the state of Israel, on the other, has played in shaping Western perceptions of Iran. The article concludes by emphasizing the importance of avoiding knee-jerk reactions and acting rationally, particularly when dealing with leaders the West deems irrational.


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Didier Billion
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dbillion@iris-france.org
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